Four Twin Cities metro-area counties are among 21 in Minnesota considered at least at moderate COVID-19 risk based on local infection and hospitalization rates.
Hennepin, Carver, Scott and Washington counties were all listed at moderate risk by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, while indoor mask-wearing was recommended in Pennington County in northwestern Minnesota because of its high risk.
The latest CDC risk data matches wastewater sampling across Minnesota that is showing more evidence of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19. The Metropolitan Wastewater Treatment Center in St. Paul reported on Friday a 21% increase in the average viral load in sewage that was sampled over the past week.
State leaders remained hopeful, though, because COVID-19 increased hospitalizations and deaths haven’t at the same rate. While 297 people were hospitalized with COVID-19 in Minnesota on Thursday, only 24 needed intensive care.
Gov. Tim Walz said vaccination progress has likely reduced the rate of infections that cause serious hospitalizations and driven Minnesota’s COVID-19 death rate to its lowest level in the pandemic. COVID-19 numbers have been at their lowest in Minnesota over the past two summers, he added.
“If this thing tracks itself, we should see a lull here over the summer,” Walz said on Wednesday before receiving his second COVID-19 vaccine booster. “We’re probably going to see spikes in the southern states coming up very shortly in the summer months when they move inside, and then our preparations are for [increased viral activity in] October.”
Not everyone was so optimistic. New, faster-spreading variants of the coronavirus could emerge and upset any apparent seasonal patterns, said Michael Osterholm, director of the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy.
“It’s impossible to predict what will happen,” he said.
A fast-spreading BA.2 coronavirus subvariant made up 97% of the viral material found in the Twin Cities’ wastewater samples over the past week. About one fifth of the BA.2 viral material involved an even faster-spreading form called BA.2.12.1, which has caused elevated COVID-19 activity in the northeastern US
Wastewater sampling has proven over time to be a faster indicator of COVID-19 trends — revealing the start and the peak of this winter’s omicron pandemic wave a week or so before infection numbers shifted.
Wastewater and infection numbers are in sync right now. The viral load in Twin Cities’ wastewater has been rising but remains four times lower than at the peak of the omicron wave. The seven-day average of new infections in Minnesota has risen from 374 per day in the week ending March 20 to nearly 1,600 per day, but the rate was 13,000 per day in mid-January.
Minnesota reported four more COVID-19 deaths on Friday, raising the state’s pandemic toll to 12,525. More than 80% of the deaths have been in seniors, but Friday’s report included a Ramsey County resident in the 45 to 49 age range.
Walz even encouraged people to protect with vaccinations, which have shown studies to reduce COVID-19 hospitalizations and severe illness in people who have already been infected. Almost 1.5 million Minnesotans have tested positive for coronavirus infections since the start of the pandemic in March 2020, but federal estimates indicate as many as 3.3 million people in the state have actually been infected.
Minnesota reported on Friday that 3.9 million Minnesotans have received at least a first COVID-19 vaccine dose but that only 2.5 million are up-to-date, which means they have completed the initial vaccine series and received boosters when recommended. Another 250,000 Minnesotans have received second boosters, which the CDC approved to maintain immunity in people who are 50 or older, have a weakened immune system, or have only received the less-effective Johnson & Johnson vaccine.
The CDC’s weekly risk designations are based on local infection and hospitalization rates, and are primarily designed to warn communities when their hospitals might be at risk of being overburdened by COVID-19. The measure has shown volatility; southeastern Olmsted and Wabasha counties were listed at high risk last week but downgraded this week.
The city of Minneapolis issued an indoor public mask-wearing recommendation a week ago in expectation of rising infection numbers and a CDC high risk designation at some point for Hennepin County. The rate of people always wearing masks in Hennepin has increased slightly over the past week to 39% while the statewide rate is 28%, according to COVIDcast survey data.